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2018 House · FL-15

St. Pete Polls · fieldwork ended 2018-11-05 (1 days before the election) · 1,194 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44.3% · Republican 46.2%

R+1.9

The certified result

Democrat 46.98% · Republican 53.02%

R+6.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.3 − 46.2 = -1.90
  2. Actual margin = 46.976 − 53.017 = -6.041
  3. Signed miss = -1.90 − (-6.041) = 4.141
  4. Absolute miss = |4.141| = 4.141

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56821, race ID 268 (538 database).