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2018 Governor · FL

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2018-11-04 (2 days before the election) · 1,484 respondents · IVR/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46.6% · Republican 50%

R+3.4

The certified result

Democrat 49.19% · Republican 49.59%

R+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.6 − 50 = -3.40
  2. Actual margin = 49.190 − 49.585 = -0.395
  3. Signed miss = -3.40 − (-0.395) = -3.005
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.005| = 3.005

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56825, race ID 138 (538 database).