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2018 Senate · AZ

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2018-11-04 (2 days before the election) · 1,217 respondents · IVR/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 45.3% · Republican 47.4%

R+2.1

The certified result

Democrat 49.96% · Republican 47.61%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.3 − 47.4 = -2.10
  2. Actual margin = 49.956 − 47.611 = 2.345
  3. Signed miss = -2.10 − (2.345) = -4.444
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.444| = 4.444

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56827, race ID 96 (538 database).