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2018 Governor · AZ

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2018-11-04 (2 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 38.5% · Republican 52.8%

R+14.3

The certified result

Democrat 41.84% · Republican 56.00%

R+14.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38.5 − 52.8 = -14.30
  2. Actual margin = 41.842 − 56.002 = -14.160
  3. Signed miss = -14.30 − (-14.160) = -0.139
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.139| = 0.139

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56829, race ID 133 (538 database).