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2018 Senate · FL

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2018-11-04 (2 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.6% · Republican 48.2%

R+0.6

The certified result

Democrat 49.93% · Republican 50.05%

R+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.6 − 48.2 = -0.60
  2. Actual margin = 49.932 − 50.055 = -0.123
  3. Signed miss = -0.60 − (-0.123) = -0.477
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.477| = 0.477

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56830, race ID 100 (538 database).