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2018 Senate · NV

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2018-11-04 (2 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46.9% · Republican 44.6%

D+2.3

The certified result

Democrat 50.41% · Republican 45.38%

D+5.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.9 − 44.6 = 2.30
  2. Actual margin = 50.412 − 45.385 = 5.027
  3. Signed miss = 2.30 − (5.027) = -2.727
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.727| = 2.727

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56831, race ID 112 (538 database).