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2018 Senate · MO

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2018-11-04 (2 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44.7% · Republican 45.5%

R+0.8

The certified result

Democrat 45.57% · Republican 51.38%

R+5.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.7 − 45.5 = -0.80
  2. Actual margin = 45.569 − 51.383 = -5.814
  3. Signed miss = -0.80 − (-5.814) = 5.014
  4. Absolute miss = |5.014| = 5.014

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56833, race ID 109 (538 database).