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2014 Governor · FL

Øptimus Analytics · fieldwork ended 2014-10-16 (19 days before the election) · 4,701 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 40.2% · Republican 41.1%

R+0.9

The certified result

Democrat 47.07% · Republican 48.14%

R+1.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40.2 − 41.1 = -0.90
  2. Actual margin = 47.067 − 48.144 = -1.077
  3. Signed miss = -0.90 − (-1.077) = 0.178
  4. Absolute miss = |0.178| = 0.178

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 58855, race ID 1253 (538 database).