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2014 Senate · IA

Øptimus Analytics · fieldwork ended 2014-10-30 (5 days before the election) · 2,421 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45.3% · Republican 48.2%

R+2.9

The certified result

Democrat 43.76% · Republican 52.10%

R+8.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.3 − 48.2 = -2.90
  2. Actual margin = 43.761 − 52.100 = -8.339
  3. Signed miss = -2.90 − (-8.339) = 5.439
  4. Absolute miss = |5.439| = 5.439

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 58868, race ID 26 (538 database).