2000 President · KY
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 51%
R+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.38% · Republican 56.51%
R+15.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 51 = -10.00
- Actual margin = 41.378 − 56.506 = -15.128
- Signed miss = -10.00 − (-15.128) = 5.128
- Absolute miss = |5.128| = 5.128
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6151, race ID 823 (538 database).