2000 President · MS
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 52%
R+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 40.70% · Republican 57.62%
R+16.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 52 = -11.00
- Actual margin = 40.698 − 57.620 = -16.922
- Signed miss = -11.00 − (-16.922) = 5.921
- Absolute miss = |5.921| = 5.921
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6152, race ID 831 (538 database).