2000 President · OK
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 54%
R+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 38.43% · Republican 60.31%
R+21.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 54 = -15.00
- Actual margin = 38.427 − 60.308 = -21.881
- Signed miss = -15.00 − (-21.881) = 6.881
- Absolute miss = |6.881| = 6.881
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6153, race ID 842 (538 database).