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2000 President · TN

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 49%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.28% · Republican 51.15%

R+3.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 49 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.285 − 51.149 = -3.864
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-3.864) = -0.136
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.136| = 0.136

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6154, race ID 848 (538 database).