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2000 President · TX

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 30% · Republican 64%

R+34.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.98% · Republican 59.30%

R+21.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 30 − 64 = -34.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.982 − 59.299 = -21.317
  3. Signed miss = -34.00 − (-21.317) = -12.683
  4. Absolute miss = |-12.683| = 12.683

The poll overstated the Republican by 12.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6155, race ID 849 (538 database).