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2000 Senate · MI

EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2000-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 47%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.48% · Republican 47.86%

D+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 47 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.475 − 47.861 = 1.614
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (1.614) = -6.614
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.614| = 6.614

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6172, race ID 1694 (538 database).