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2000 Senate · NJ

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 770 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 45%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.11% · Republican 47.10%

D+3.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 45 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.113 − 47.096 = 3.017
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (3.017) = -5.017
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.017| = 5.017

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6175, race ID 1701 (538 database).