Skip to content

2000 President · IL

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 40%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.60% · Republican 42.59%

D+12.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 40 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.597 − 42.585 = 12.012
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (12.012) = -3.012
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.012| = 3.012

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6180, race ID 820 (538 database).