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2000 Senate · NY

Blum & Weprin Associates · fieldwork ended 2000-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 851 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 40%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.19% · Republican 39.15%

D+12.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 40 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.187 − 39.148 = 12.039
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (12.039) = -5.038
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.038| = 5.038

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6190, race ID 1703 (538 database).