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2000 President · MN

Minneapolis Star Tribune · fieldwork ended 2000-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 1,015 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 37%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.91% · Republican 45.50%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 37 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.906 − 45.502 = 2.404
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (2.404) = 7.597
  4. Absolute miss = |7.597| = 7.597

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6213, race ID 829 (538 database).