2000 President · PA
American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2000-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 42%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.61% · Republican 46.44%
D+4.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 42 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 50.608 − 46.438 = 4.170
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (4.170) = 1.830
- Absolute miss = |1.830| = 1.830
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6229, race ID 844 (538 database).