2000 President · TN
American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2000-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 43%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.28% · Republican 51.15%
R+3.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 43 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 47.285 − 51.149 = -3.864
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (-3.864) = 9.864
- Absolute miss = |9.864| = 9.864
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.9 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6230, race ID 848 (538 database).