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2019 Governor · KY

Targoz Market Research · fieldwork ended 2019-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 401 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 36%

D+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.19% · Republican 48.84%

D+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 36 = 19.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.191 − 48.835 = 0.356
  3. Signed miss = 19.00 − (0.356) = 18.644
  4. Absolute miss = |18.644| = 18.644

The poll overstated the Democrat by 18.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 62455, race ID 6208 (538 database).