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2014 Governor · HI

Tarrance Group · fieldwork ended 2014-10-16 (19 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 37%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 37.08%

D+12.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 37 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.454 − 37.076 = 12.378
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (12.378) = -10.378
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.378| = 10.378

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 62489, race ID 1227 (538 database).