2000 President · MI
Mitchell Research & Communications · fieldwork ended 2000-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 41%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.28% · Republican 46.15%
D+5.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 41 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 51.280 − 46.146 = 5.134
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (5.134) = -0.134
- Absolute miss = |-0.134| = 0.134
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6249, race ID 828 (538 database).