2014 Governor · OH
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · fieldwork ended 2014-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 803 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 36% · Republican 51%
R+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 33.03% · Republican 63.64%
R+30.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 36 − 51 = -15.00
- Actual margin = 33.030 − 63.642 = -30.612
- Signed miss = -15.00 − (-30.612) = 15.612
- Absolute miss = |15.612| = 15.612
The poll overstated the Democrat by 15.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 62494, race ID 1243 (538 database).