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2000 Senate · WA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 47%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.73% · Republican 48.64%

D+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.730 − 48.640 = 0.090
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (0.090) = -1.091
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.091| = 1.091

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6252, race ID 1713 (538 database).