2019 Governor · LA
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2019-11-06 (10 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 46%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.33% · Republican 48.67%
D+2.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 46 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 51.333 − 48.667 = 2.666
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (2.666) = -0.665
- Absolute miss = |-0.665| = 0.665
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 62595, race ID 6299 (538 database).