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2019 Governor · LA

JMC Analytics · fieldwork ended 2019-11-12 (4 days before the election) · 600 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46.5% · Republican 46%

D+0.5

The certified result

Democrat 51.33% · Republican 48.67%

D+2.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.5 − 46 = 0.50
  2. Actual margin = 51.333 − 48.667 = 2.666
  3. Signed miss = 0.50 − (2.666) = -2.165
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.165| = 2.165

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 62626, race ID 6299 (538 database).