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2019 Governor · LA

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2019-11-06 (10 days before the election) · 1,434 respondents · Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 50.2% · Republican 49.8%

D+0.4

The certified result

Democrat 51.33% · Republican 48.67%

D+2.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.2 − 49.8 = 0.40
  2. Actual margin = 51.333 − 48.667 = 2.666
  3. Signed miss = 0.40 − (2.666) = -2.265
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.265| = 2.265

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 62637, race ID 6299 (538 database).