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2019 Governor · LA

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2019-11-14 (2 days before the election) · 1,107 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 49.4% · Republican 50.6%

R+1.2

The certified result

Democrat 51.33% · Republican 48.67%

D+2.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.4 − 50.6 = -1.20
  2. Actual margin = 51.333 − 48.667 = 2.666
  3. Signed miss = -1.20 − (2.666) = -3.865
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.865| = 3.865

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 62639, race ID 6299 (538 database).