2000 President · TN
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 48%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.28% · Republican 51.15%
R+3.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 48 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 47.285 − 51.149 = -3.864
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (-3.864) = 0.864
- Absolute miss = |0.864| = 0.864
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6270, race ID 848 (538 database).