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2000 Senate · NY

Princeton Survey Research Associates International · fieldwork ended 2000-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 844 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 47%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.19% · Republican 39.15%

D+12.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.187 − 39.148 = 12.039
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (12.039) = -11.038
  4. Absolute miss = |-11.038| = 11.038

The poll overstated the Republican by 11.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6281, race ID 1703 (538 database).