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2000 President · AR

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-28 (10 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 45%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.86% · Republican 51.31%

R+5.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 45 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.864 − 51.307 = -5.443
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-5.443) = 4.443
  4. Absolute miss = |4.443| = 4.443

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6302, race ID 808 (538 database).