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2000 Senate · PA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 33% · Republican 54%

R+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.51% · Republican 52.42%

R+6.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 33 − 54 = -21.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.509 − 52.416 = -6.907
  3. Signed miss = -21.00 − (-6.907) = -14.093
  4. Absolute miss = |-14.093| = 14.093

The poll overstated the Republican by 14.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6320, race ID 1706 (538 database).