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2000 President · MN

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 41%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.91% · Republican 45.50%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 41 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.906 − 45.502 = 2.404
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (2.404) = 0.597
  4. Absolute miss = |0.597| = 0.597

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6324, race ID 829 (538 database).