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2000 President · ID

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 633 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 30% · Republican 56%

R+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 27.64% · Republican 67.17%

R+39.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 30 − 56 = -26.00
  2. Actual margin = 27.638 − 67.170 = -39.532
  3. Signed miss = -26.00 − (-39.532) = 13.532
  4. Absolute miss = |13.532| = 13.532

The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6351, race ID 819 (538 database).