2000 Senate · NE
RKM Research and Communications Inc. · fieldwork ended 2000-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 1,007 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 37%
D+12.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.00% · Republican 48.82%
D+2.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 37 = 12.00
- Actual margin = 50.999 − 48.816 = 2.183
- Signed miss = 12.00 − (2.183) = 9.817
- Absolute miss = |9.817| = 9.817
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6352, race ID 1699 (538 database).