Skip to content

2008 President · NV

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2008-11-02 (2 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 47%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.15% · Republican 42.65%

D+12.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 47 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.147 − 42.654 = 12.493
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (12.493) = -7.493
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.493| = 7.493

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63532, race ID 737 (538 database).