2008 Senate · NC
Elon University · fieldwork ended 2008-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 797 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 37%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.65% · Republican 44.18%
D+8.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 37 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 52.653 − 44.184 = 8.469
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (8.469) = -1.469
- Absolute miss = |-1.469| = 1.469
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63540, race ID 1569 (538 database).