Skip to content

2000 President · national

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 134,000 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 47%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.15% · Republican 47.66%

D+0.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.149 − 47.657 = 0.492
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (0.492) = -1.492
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.492| = 1.492

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63544, race ID 40 (538 database).