2000 President · IA
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 2,478 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 44%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.54% · Republican 48.22%
D+0.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 44 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 48.536 − 48.221 = 0.315
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (0.315) = 5.685
- Absolute miss = |5.685| = 5.685
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63553, race ID 818 (538 database).