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2000 President · ID

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 908 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 27% · Republican 65%

R+38.0

The certified result

Democrat 27.64% · Republican 67.17%

R+39.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 27 − 65 = -38.00
  2. Actual margin = 27.638 − 67.170 = -39.532
  3. Signed miss = -38.00 − (-39.532) = 1.532
  4. Absolute miss = |1.532| = 1.532

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63554, race ID 819 (538 database).