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2000 President · IL

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 8,957 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 45%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.60% · Republican 42.59%

D+12.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 45 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.597 − 42.585 = 12.012
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (12.012) = -6.012
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.012| = 6.012

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63555, race ID 820 (538 database).