2000 President · KS
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 2,543 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 38% · Republican 55%
R+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 37.24% · Republican 58.04%
R+20.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 38 − 55 = -17.00
- Actual margin = 37.238 − 58.042 = -20.804
- Signed miss = -17.00 − (-20.804) = 3.803
- Absolute miss = |3.803| = 3.803
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63556, race ID 822 (538 database).