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2000 Senate · MA

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 5,109 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 67% · Republican 14%

D+53.0

The certified result

Democrat 69.11% · Republican 12.23%

D+56.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 67 − 14 = 53.00
  2. Actual margin = 69.111 − 12.229 = 56.882
  3. Signed miss = 53.00 − (56.882) = -3.882
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.882| = 3.882

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63558, race ID 1693 (538 database).