2000 President · ME
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 1,485 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 42%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.09% · Republican 43.97%
D+5.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 42 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 49.086 − 43.972 = 5.114
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (5.114) = 2.886
- Absolute miss = |2.886| = 2.886
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63560, race ID 827 (538 database).