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2000 President · MI

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 8,757 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 45%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.28% · Republican 46.15%

D+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 45 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.280 − 46.146 = 5.134
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (5.134) = -0.134
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.134| = 0.134

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63561, race ID 828 (538 database).