2000 President · MN
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 3,796 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 43%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.91% · Republican 45.50%
D+2.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 43 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 47.906 − 45.502 = 2.404
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (2.404) = 0.597
- Absolute miss = |0.597| = 0.597
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63562, race ID 829 (538 database).