2000 President · NE
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 1,481 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 38% · Republican 57%
R+19.0
The certified result
Democrat 33.25% · Republican 62.24%
R+29.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 38 − 57 = -19.00
- Actual margin = 33.253 − 62.245 = -28.992
- Signed miss = -19.00 − (-28.992) = 9.992
- Absolute miss = |9.992| = 9.992
The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63563, race ID 835 (538 database).