2000 Senate · NJ
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 7,193 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 45%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.11% · Republican 47.10%
D+3.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 50.113 − 47.096 = 3.017
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (3.017) = 0.983
- Absolute miss = |0.983| = 0.983
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63564, race ID 1701 (538 database).